Three-year leases signed in 2023 are returning now. CarScout data as of June 7, 2026, shows 16,406 active 2023 midsize SUV listings across seven models. The models with the most supply have the most room to negotiate. The models with the least have almost none.
That split matters more than the off-lease wave in aggregate. Edmunds projects total off-lease volume will rise 25.7% in H2 2026, adding roughly 500,000 units to the used market compared to last year. But that supply lands unevenly. In the midsize SUV segment, Ford Explorer inventory runs 5x the Hyundai Palisade's. Both are three-year-old, 35,000-mile vehicles. The negotiating math is completely different.
The Supply Map
| Model | Active 2023 Listings | Median Mileage | Used Price Range | 2026 MSRP (base) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Explorer | 4,810 | 32,712 mi | $16,995–$55,988 | $38,330 |
| Chevrolet Traverse | 3,774 | 35,350 mi | $14,900–$66,890 | $41,195 |
| Toyota Highlander | 2,329 | 40,434 mi | $22,500–$57,995 | $46,765 |
| Volkswagen Atlas | 1,892 | 33,077 mi | $9,300–$39,995 | — |
| Kia Telluride | 1,438 | 40,565 mi | $19,999–$52,450 | $37,885 |
| Honda Pilot | 1,209 | 35,685 mi | $19,980–$53,830 | $43,690 |
| Hyundai Palisade | 954 | 39,356 mi | $19,891–$42,340 | $41,035 |
Explorer and Traverse together account for 53% of all 2023 midsize SUV listings on the market right now. Supply concentration in two nameplates is what creates actual negotiating leverage.
Why Explorer and Traverse Have So Many
Ford and Chevrolet lease their midsize SUVs aggressively through fleet and retail programs. Neither brand has the scarcity culture that keeps Telluride or Pilot buyers from negotiating. Dealers who took these vehicles back at lease-end in 2026 are now competing against other Explorer and Traverse units on lots nearby. That's real buyer leverage.
A 2023 Explorer XLT with 32,000 miles is listing around $30,000. The new 2026 base Explorer starts at $38,330. The three-year discount is approximately $8,000 to $10,000 on comparable trims. Whether it holds that value through your ownership depends on how long you plan to keep it.
The 2023 Traverse has the widest price floor in the segment. At $14,900 for the low end, you're likely looking at high-mileage LS trims or fleet returns. Clean LT and RS trims with under 40,000 miles typically list in the $24,000–$32,000 range, versus a new 2026 Traverse at $41,195.
Why Telluride and Palisade Are Different
1,438 and 954 active listings, respectively, is not a flood. It's normal inventory turnover. Demand for both models has stayed strong enough that returns are absorbed quickly rather than piling up on dealer lots.
The 2023 Telluride lists as low as $19,999 (high-mileage or auction examples) and above $52,000 for a loaded SX Prestige. Clean mid-range SX and EX trims in the $33,000–$38,000 range are close enough to a new 2026 base Telluride at $37,885 that buying new becomes worth considering. Residual strength is a two-sided argument: good for previous owners, less useful for today's buyers trying to find a deal.
The Palisade situation is similar. 954 listings for a vehicle that shares its platform with the Telluride and targets the same buyer. The $19,891–$42,340 range spans SE to Calligraphy. Per KBB data, clean 2023 Palisade SE trims start around $25,500, Calligraphy around $34,300. The new 2026 Palisade starts at $41,035.
The Toyota Highlander Note
The 2023 Highlander is the final year of the sixth-generation platform. Toyota redesigned the Highlander for 2024, adding a standard hybrid powertrain across the lineup and revamping the interior. A 2023 model is buying the outgoing generation.
That's not automatically a problem. The sixth-gen platform is proven, and the 2023 refinements addressed several interior quality complaints from earlier model years. Per KBB data, average transaction price on a used 2023 Highlander sits at $29,042. New 2026 starts at $46,765. The $17,700 gap is the widest in this comparison. Buyers who don't need the redesigned interior and want to capture maximum depreciation have a case here. Buyers who want the latest generation don't.
The Honda Pilot Case
The 2023 Pilot is the first year of the completely redesigned fourth generation, which launched with major changes to interior space and available trims. If you want the new-generation Pilot at used prices, 2023 is the entry point. Median mileage of 35,685 miles is consistent with a standard lease return.
The tradeoff: only 1,209 listings means less dealer pressure than Explorer or Traverse. A 2023 Pilot TrailSport or Elite trim in clean condition lists in the $38,000–$45,000 range, which isn't far from a new one at $43,690. The value case is strongest at the EX-L and Touring level, which list used in the $28,000–$34,000 range for mid-range mileage examples.
What Lease-Return Mileage Actually Means
Across all seven models, median mileage runs 32,000–40,000 miles. A standard 36-month lease at 12,000 miles per year returns at 36,000 miles. A 10,000-mile lease returns at 30,000. These vehicles were driven to work and back under factory warranty coverage. Most haven't seen commercial use, extended off-road use, or unusual conditions.
CPO certification is available from Honda, Hyundai, Kia, and Toyota where the original factory window is still open. For 2023 model years, most manufacturers' CPO eligibility windows remain active through at least 2026.
Check open recalls on any 2023 midsize SUV before you buy. NHTSA's recall database is searchable by VIN. Several 2023 Ford and Chevrolet models have open campaigns. Confirming the vehicle is compliant before purchase is a five-minute step that protects you at resale.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a 2023 midsize SUV with 40,000 miles worth buying off lease? 40,000 miles on a dealer-maintained lease return with documented service history is typical condition for this segment. Most 2023 midsize SUVs have remaining powertrain warranty coverage, and CPO programs extend that further where applicable. Mechanical risk at 40,000 miles on a modern Japanese or Korean midsize SUV is low.
Why does the Kia Telluride cost so much used when there are more coming off lease? The Telluride has 1,438 active 2023 listings compared to 4,810 for the Explorer. Off-lease volume has increased, but demand has kept pace. JD Power has tracked the Telluride as a top resale value vehicle in its class since 2020. Dealers see no pressure to discount because buyers arrive before cars sit. That dynamic won't reverse unless lease returns accelerate significantly beyond demand.
Should I buy a 2023 Toyota Highlander or wait for a 2024? The 2023 is the last of the previous generation; the 2024 introduced a redesigned interior and standard hybrid powertrain. If the hybrid is important to you, wait for a 2024 or 2025 off-lease return. If it isn't, the 2023 offers the widest discount versus new in this segment: roughly $17,700 below the 2026 MSRP on a comparable trim, per KBB average transaction data.
Track 2023 midsize SUV listings and set alerts for specific trims and VINs as more off-lease returns arrive through the summer at CarScout.