JD Power projects 300,000 EV leases ending in 2026, up 230% from 2025. Nearly half of all EVs sold at franchised dealerships in 2023 were leased, largely because the Inflation Reduction Act let dealers pass a $7,500 federal tax credit directly to lessees, regardless of income. Those three-year deals are expiring now. The buyout decision is live.
The core question is whether your residual—the purchase price written into your contract back in 2023—is above or below what the same car trades for in the used market today. If it's below market, buying out means paying less than a used buyer would. If it's above market, you'd overpay for a car you could replace for less by simply walking away.
Most lessees never check the comparison before sitting down with the dealer.
How the Buyout Decision Works
Your lease contract contains a residual value, the pre-set estimate of what the car would be worth at the end of the term. Leasing companies set it when you signed in 2023 based on their depreciation projections. Those projections have not aged well for most EVs. Prices on many 2023 models fell 15% to 25% between 2023 and 2025 as manufacturers cut prices and used supply built up.
Your payoff quote—residual plus any remaining fees and applicable taxes—is available from your leasing company's online portal or by phone. Get that number before any conversation with a dealer. Everything depends on it.
A Model-by-Model Look
Residual percentages were not publicly disclosed in most 2023 lease agreements. The estimates below are derived from lease industry data, historical Leasehackr records, and per-brand lease disclosures. Your actual residual may differ; use these as a framework, not a quote.
| Model | 2023 MSRP (approx.) | Est. Residual % | Est. Buyout | Current Used Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Ioniq 6 SE | $38,615 | 58–62% (inflated) | ~$22,000–$24,000 | $19,230–$25,000 |
| Tesla Model 3 RWD | $40,240 | 59–65% | ~$23,700–$26,000 | $21,490–$29,000 |
| Tesla Model 3 Long Range | $47,240 | 59–65% | ~$27,900–$30,700 | $27,000–$34,698 |
| Chevy Bolt LT (post-cut) | $26,500 | 50–55% | ~$13,250–$14,600 | $14,831–$22,000 |
Sources: Edmunds, KBB private-party values, CarScout market data as of June 28, 2026; Ioniq 6 CarsDirect; Bolt MSRP post-August 2023 price cut.
Hyundai Ioniq 6: CarsDirect documented in 2023 that Hyundai inflated Ioniq 6 residual values to reduce monthly payments. That strategy lowered your monthly cost in 2023 and raised your buyout cost in 2026. CarScout data as of June 28 shows 2023 Ioniq 6 SEL listings starting at $19,230. If your residual was set above $22,000, the used market is offering the same car for less. Return it, then buy one at market if you want to keep the model.
Tesla Model 3: Tesla's residuals were set in the 59–65% range per historical lease data. On the base RWD model, that puts the buyout at roughly $23,700–$26,000. KBB private-party value for the 2023 Model 3 RWD in typical condition runs $21,490–$24,090. The buyout is at or above private-party for the base trim. Long Range math is more favorable: a buyout near $28,000–$30,000 sits within the used market range of $27,000–$34,698, depending on condition and options.
One important difference with Tesla: their lease terms do not permit third-party buyouts. You can purchase the vehicle yourself at lease end, but you cannot sell the buyout to a third party or assign it. If you were hoping to profit by buying out and reselling, that isn't an option.
Chevy Bolt: GM cut the Bolt's price from approximately $31,000 to $26,500 in August 2023. Leases signed before that cut carried higher residuals based on the old MSRP; leases signed after carried lower ones. For post-cut leases, the estimated buyout ($13,250–$14,600) falls below the current used market floor of $14,831 per CarScout data. That's a genuine deal. For pre-cut leases, residuals were built on the $31,000 base, pushing the buyout to $15,500–$17,000—closer to, but still within, current used market range. Check when you signed.
The Battery Warranty Everyone Gets Wrong
A common reason lessees assume they should buy out: they don't want to lose the battery warranty. Federal law requires EV manufacturers to cover batteries for 8 years or 100,000 miles. That warranty travels with the vehicle, not the owner. Returning your lease doesn't forfeit the remaining coverage. If you then buy a different 2023 EV on the used market, that vehicle carries the same remaining battery warranty.
The warranty calculus is identical either way. It's not a reason to buy out. It's a reason not to worry about returning.
When the Math Gets Complicated
Two situations make the comparison less straightforward.
You've modified the car. Aftermarket additions—floor mats, tinted windows, upgraded wheels—don't increase your buyout value and often don't transfer. Returning a modified vehicle may trigger a restoration charge. If you've invested meaningfully in the car, a buyout prevents that spend from becoming a sunk cost.
Your unit has unusually low mileage. The average 2023 Hyundai Ioniq 6 returning to the market is sitting at 27,370 miles per CarScout inventory data. A copy with 14,000 miles trades at a premium above market average. If your car is significantly under average, you're not comparing to market floor—you're comparing to top-of-market. Run your specific mileage through KBB or Edmunds before deciding.
How to Run the Comparison
- Request your payoff amount from the leasing company portal or by phone. This is the residual plus fees plus taxes—the real number, not just the residual line in your contract.
- Look up private-party value for your specific trim, mileage, and color on KBB, Edmunds, and CarScout. Private-party value, not trade-in value, is the right comparison—it reflects what you'd pay to buy an equivalent vehicle from a private seller.
- If payoff is below private-party value: the buyout is worth serious consideration.
- If payoff is at or above private-party value: return the car. You can often buy a comparable used unit at market for less than your buyout would cost.
One more check: confirm your leasing company's policy on third-party buyouts before making any plans that involve immediate resale.
FAQ
Is it worth buying out an EV lease in 2026? It depends on your specific model and residual. Per KBB and CarScout market data as of June 28, 2026, most 2023 EVs—including the base Tesla Model 3 RWD and Hyundai Ioniq 6—have estimated buyouts at or above current private-party values. The clearest exceptions are Chevy Bolt leases signed after GM's August 2023 price cut, where the estimated buyout falls below the used market floor. Get your exact payoff quote from the leasing company before deciding.
What happens to the battery warranty if I return my lease? The 8-year/100,000-mile federal battery warranty transfers with the vehicle, not the lessee. Returning your lease in good standing doesn't affect the remaining coverage. A buyer who purchases your returned vehicle from the dealer gets the same remaining warranty. If you then buy a different used 2023 EV, that vehicle carries its own remaining warranty. Both paths leave you with equivalent coverage.
Does returning an EV lease hurt my credit? Returning a lease in good standing—mileage within contract limits, normal wear—has no negative credit impact. Unpaid excess mileage charges or damage fees can go to collections if left unresolved, which does affect credit. Confirm your mileage total and a visual inspection before your scheduled return appointment.
Before your lease-end meeting, check what 2023 EV models are actually trading for in your zip code. CarScout tracks live price ranges and listing counts by trim updated weekly. See current EV market data at /market.