The Section 122 tariff expires July 24. Cars were never covered by it. If you've been holding off on a car purchase waiting for that date to bring lower prices, it won't.
Automobiles are subject to Section 232 tariffs: a 25% duty on imported vehicles that has no expiration date. Federal law doesn't allow Section 122 to stack on top of Section 232. The 25% stays regardless of what happens at the end of July. This is sometimes called "Section 232 primacy," and it's the reason the past four months of tariff legal drama (the SCOTUS IEEPA ruling, the Section 122 bridge tariff, the Court of International Trade ruling in May, the Federal Circuit stay) has produced no movement in car prices. Different legal battles. Different goods.
There are real timing signals for used car buyers this summer. The July 24 date isn't one of them.
What's Actually Moving Used Car Prices
Used car prices rose 3.1% in May alone, adding more than $870 to the average vehicle across every segment, per Carfax's June 2026 index. The average used vehicle now lists at $30,166, up $860 year-over-year according to JD Power.
The pressure source is displacement. Tariffs added roughly $2,000 to the average domestic new vehicle and an estimated $5,000 to $8,900 to imports, per Edmunds. Buyers who would have bought new are shopping used instead. Cox Automotive estimates 58% of in-market new car shoppers say tariffs have made them more likely to buy used. That demand is landing unevenly across segments.
| Segment | May Price Change | Supply Tightness | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget under $15K | +$870 avg | 33 days — very tight | Buy when ready |
| Trucks and SUVs | +$725 | Below 40 days | No timing edge to waiting |
| Used EVs | +$1,450 | Above avg; flood coming | Wait if budget allows |
| Luxury used | +$1,000 | Above 50 days | Small edge to negotiating |
| Sedans | Flat to slight rise | Softest segment | Buyer leverage available |
The Sub-$15K Problem
Sub-$15,000 used car inventory hit 33 days of supply in May. The overall used car market average sits at 45 days. That 12-day gap is among the tightest differentials between the budget segment and the broader market since 2021.
Buyers priced out of new cars by tariffs aren't shopping for $32,000 used SUVs. They're competing for used Civics, Corollas, and older Accords. Waiting a few weeks to see if prices soften doesn't work when supply is at 33 days and the demand cohort pushing that tightness isn't going away. If you find a specific vehicle in that range priced fairly, there's no inventory dynamic that rewards waiting.
The Case for Waiting (Specifically for EVs)
If you're shopping for a used EV or a recently off-lease vehicle, the summer timing math is genuinely different. Off-lease volumes are projected to rise 25.7% in 2026, representing roughly 500,000 additional units compared to last year, per Edmunds. EV lease returns alone are expected to exceed 300,000 units, a 200%+ year-over-year increase. The bulk of that supply arrives in Q3 and Q4.
Used EV prices jumped $1,450 in May, the largest monthly increase of any vehicle category, according to Carfax. That spike is running ahead of incoming supply. Cox Automotive forecasts a softer second half for used EVs as that inventory lands. For EV buyers who aren't in a rush, Q3 should offer more selection and softer prices than June.
Why the Tariff Expiration Doesn't Help Even New Car Buyers
For anyone considering a new car purchase, the July 24 deadline is equally irrelevant. The Section 122 tariff applied a 10% global surcharge, but new cars were excluded from it because they're already under Section 232. The administration has also publicly stated its intent to use Section 301 and additional Section 232 investigations as longer-term replacements before Section 122 lapses. There's no credible policy path that produces an across-the-board price drop on cars next month.
What could lower new car prices is automakers absorbing more tariff cost. Toyota already reported a 25% decline in net income through the first three quarters of fiscal 2026 from roughly $8 billion in tariff losses. Manufacturers have limited room to keep eating this. Some will pass more cost to buyers. Some will reduce trim levels. Neither scenario benefits the buyer who waited until August.
Should I wait until after July 24 to buy a used car? For most used car buyers, no. Section 122 tariffs never applied to automobiles, so the July 24 expiration won't reduce used car prices. Sub-$15K inventory is at a two-year low of 33 days of supply. The only segment where waiting makes sense is used EVs, where a 200%+ surge in off-lease returns is expected to soften prices in Q3 and Q4 2026.
Is summer 2026 a good time to buy a used car? It depends on what you're buying. Budget vehicles under $15K are in short supply and getting tighter. Trucks and SUVs are competitive because tariff-displaced new car buyers are absorbing that inventory. Sedans and luxury vehicles have more negotiating room. Used EVs are the one segment with a real case for waiting, due to the incoming lease-return flood in Q3.
Will new car prices drop after July 2026? Unlikely in the near term. Section 232 automotive tariffs (25% on imported vehicles) have no expiration date and are separate from Section 122. The administration plans to replace the Section 122 bridge with longer-lasting trade authorities. Edmunds estimates the tariff effect on new car prices currently runs between $2,000 and $8,900 depending on where a vehicle was built.
Use CarScout's market tools to track inventory levels and price movement by segment in your area before committing to a timeline.