CarEdge projects used sedan prices falling 1 to 5 percent through the rest of 2026. The overall used car market is up roughly 6 percent year-over-year, per Kelley Blue Book's May 2026 report. Those two facts are happening at the same time.
The divergence comes down to supply and demand operating in opposite directions. Off-lease inventory is up 25.7 percent this year, adding close to 400,000 additional late-model vehicles to the used market. A large portion of them are sedans. Honda Accords, Toyota Camrys, and Honda Civics dominated franchise-dealer lease activity from 2021 through 2023. Those three-year deals are expiring now. The cars are landing on lots with 35,000 to 42,000 miles, clean CarFax histories, and factory service records. Buyers just aren't rushing to claim them the way they rush to claim crossovers.
That gap is real money for anyone willing to buy a sedan.
What Supply Looks Like Right Now
The off-lease wave is concentrated in specific models. The 2021 through 2023 model years saw the heaviest lease penetration in the compact and midsize sedan segments, so those are the years where inventory is deepest now.
Genuine lease returns tend to cluster around 35,000 to 42,000 miles. If you're shopping 2022 or 2023 Civics and Accords and seeing median mileage above 48,000 miles on a lot, that car was not a lease return. It was a fleet vehicle, a rental return, or a high-mileage private sale. The condition profile differs. Ask the dealer for the vehicle's history before assuming "off-lease."
Rental fleet returns entered the used market in high volume through 2024 and 2025. Most rental companies have trimmed their fleets, so the 2026 off-lease wave is cleaner: a higher share of the inventory hitting dealer lots now reflects single-owner, consumer-leased vehicles.
Current Asking Prices by Model
The figures below come from KBB, CarEdge, and CARFAX market data as of July 2026. Private-party and dealer asking prices vary by condition and region. These represent typical ranges for vehicles in good condition with average mileage.
| Model | Year Range | Typical Used Range | 3-Year Depreciation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Honda Accord | 2022-2023 | $19,000-$22,500 | ~30% |
| Toyota Camry | 2022-2023 | $19,500-$24,000 | ~24% |
| Honda Civic | 2022-2023 | $17,950-$21,000 | 19-23% |
| Hyundai Sonata | 2021-2023 | $14,500-$18,000 | 35-40% |
| Toyota Corolla | 2021-2023 | $14,500-$18,500 | 28-32% |
The Sonata's higher depreciation rate isn't a quality story. It's a brand perception lag. Hyundai's reliability scores have improved significantly in the 2020s, but resale values trail that improvement by several years. A 2022 Sonata with 40,000 miles offers substantially more car than its asking price suggests, particularly if you're comparing it dollar-for-dollar against a 2022 Civic in the same price range.
The Camry holds value better than the Accord, partly because the 2023 model moved to standard hybrid across all trim levels. That made the 2023 Camry hybrid the default option rather than a premium add-on. In the used market, that means more 2023 Camry inventory is hybrid-spec, which holds value and attracts buyers who'd otherwise cross-shop the RAV4 hybrid.
Why This Window Exists
SUV demand stayed elevated from 2020 onward and has not softened. Crossovers and SUVs now represent more than 60 percent of new vehicle sales. Buyers who priced out every crossover at the dealership continue doing the same in the secondary market. Used SUV prices reflect that sustained demand; used sedan prices don't.
The used market for sedans has more supply than demand right now. That puts downward pressure on prices even while the rest of the market inflates.
Why This Window Is Temporary
New sedan sales are recovering. The Honda Accord posted a 42 percent year-over-year sales gain in early 2026, according to The Drive. The Toyota Camry was up 18 percent. That's new car sales, not used. But renewed interest in sedans at the dealer level eventually flows into the secondary market: buyers who cross-shop the new Accord at $32,000 also start competing harder for used Accords at $20,000.
The off-lease supply surge normalizes as the 2021 through 2023 lease wave works through dealer inventory. CarEdge's 1 to 5 percent price-drop projection is for 2026 specifically. By mid-2027, the gap between sedan and SUV depreciation rates is likely to shrink.
The window is open now. It won't stay open indefinitely.
Three Things to Check on a 2022-2023 Off-Lease Sedan
Off-lease sedans are typically the cleanest used cars on the market: single owner, maintained under factory warranty, with documented service histories. That doesn't mean you skip inspection.
Tire wear pattern. Uneven wear on a front-wheel-drive sedan usually signals deferred rotation or alignment neglect. Check all four corners. If the outer edges are more worn than the centers, the lessee skipped rotations.
CVT or automatic transmission fluid. Many 2022-2023 Accords and Civics use CVTs. Dark fluid on a car with under 45,000 miles indicates the service interval was missed. Ask the dealer to show fluid condition before finalizing a price.
Collision history cross-check. Pull a CARFAX or AutoCheck report and then physically inspect gap consistency between body panels. Minor collision repairs sometimes go unreported. A report that shows clean history but inconsistent gaps means the panel work happened without an insurance claim.
FAQ
Why are used sedan prices falling while everything else is more expensive? Off-lease supply is up 25.7 percent in 2026, and a significant share of those returning vehicles are sedans that were leased heavily from 2021 to 2023. Dealer lots have more of them than buyers want right now. Combined with sustained preference for SUVs, that supply surplus is pushing sedan asking prices down even as the broader used market inflates.
Is a 2022-2023 Honda Accord or Toyota Camry a reliable used buy? Both rank consistently among the top-rated vehicles in consumer reliability studies. The 2023 Camry standardized hybrid powertrains across all trims, removing the non-hybrid option from new model year inventory. The 2022-2023 Accord hybrid is rated at 48 mpg combined per EPA estimates. Neither model has a significant known structural or drivetrain defect pattern. Both have wide dealer networks and readily available parts.
How long will used sedan prices stay low? CarEdge projects sedan prices declining through the end of 2026. The structural driver is excess off-lease supply, which normalizes as the 2021 to 2023 lease wave clears dealer inventory. Combined with recovering new sedan demand, used sedan prices are likely higher in relative terms by mid-2027 than they are today.
CarScout tracks active listings across 50,000+ used vehicles in real time. If you're targeting a specific 2022-2023 Accord, Camry, or Civic at a particular price, a CarScout alert delivers matching listings as they appear: usecarscout.com/market/honda/accord.