The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit 215.3 in March 2026, the highest level since summer 2023, up 6.2% year over year. If you've been waiting for used car prices to cool down, that's not great news. But trucks are telling a more specific story than the rest of the market: they're not just holding value, they're resisting the forces that are softening everything else.
Per CarEdge's 2026 used car price forecast, used trucks and SUVs are projected to finish the year 1-5% higher. Sedans, by contrast, are expected to fall 1-5% as off-lease supply floods back in. The two segments are moving in opposite directions. If a pickup is on your list, the tailwind sedan buyers are getting doesn't apply here.
Why Truck Supply Isn't Getting Easier
Over 300,000 electric vehicles are returning from lease in 2026, a 200%+ increase over 2025 levels according to CDK Global. That surge is giving used EV buyers access to cleaner, lower-mileage inventory at scale. Manheim's EV wholesale volume set a record in Q1, with nearly 37,000 units sold.
Trucks don't get that same relief. Pickup trucks have historically lower lease penetration than passenger cars and EVs. Fewer trucks are leased in the first place, which means fewer return as clean used inventory. The used truck market refills through trade-ins and fleet retirement, not the lease return wave reshaping every other segment.
Then there's the commercial demand floor. Contractors, small businesses, and tradespeople don't stop needing pickups when the broader economy softens. That non-discretionary demand puts a floor under truck pricing that doesn't exist for sedans or crossovers. CarEdge notes this consistently in their segment analysis: trucks and SUVs face "strong demand" regardless of broader market conditions, supporting moderate price growth even when sedans are giving back gains.
The New Truck Price Anchor
The 2026 Ford F-150 starts at $40,085 for the base XL trim, per Ford's current pricing. The Chevrolet Silverado 1500, Ram 1500, and GMC Sierra are in the same territory, all pushing $40,000 or above before any option packages.
That new price floor creates a specific dynamic in the used market. Buyers who can't stretch to $40K-plus on a new truck flow straight into 2019-2022 models instead. That demand keeps used truck prices from softening.
The tariff backdrop reinforces this. Auto tariffs added roughly $1,600 to $2,000 in costs to US-assembled vehicles, per CBT News. The F-150 (built in Dearborn, MI and Kansas City, MO), Silverado 1500 (Fort Wayne, IN), Ram 1500 (Sterling Heights, MI), and Tacoma (San Antonio, TX) are all US-assembled, which gave them partial insulation compared to fully imported vehicles, where tariff costs added $5,000 to $8,900 per vehicle. Used trucks don't absorb those costs directly, but the elevated new price floor means more buyers competing for the same used inventory.
What the Inventory Data Shows
CarScout's market data as of April 12, 2026, shows how F-150 supply varies by model year:
| Year | Listings | Median Mileage |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3,859 | 105,756 |
| 2019 | 3,904 | 91,836 |
| 2020 | 3,513 | 85,110 |
| 2021 | 4,137 | 76,348 |
| 2022 | 5,754 | 53,031 |
The 2020 model year is the tightest supply on this list. COVID-era production cuts in spring and summer of 2020 reduced F-150 output, and those trucks are now in peak working-life territory at around 85,000 miles. Expect less negotiating room on 2020 models than on 2021 or 2022 examples.
The 2022 has the deepest supply and lowest median mileage at 53,031 miles. For buyers who want newer design, lower miles, and reasonable availability, the 2022 is where most of the value concentrates right now. The 2021 Silverado 1500 tells a nearly identical story: 4,127 CarScout listings at a median 75,712 miles.
CarScout carries 107,386 total F-150 listings across all model years, making it the deepest used vehicle category on the platform. The supply is there. The price discounts, according to the Q1 2026 data, are not.
Sedans Are the Better Trade If You Have Flexibility
Used trucks aren't the only option for buyers who just need capable daily transportation. If your use case doesn't genuinely require a bed or 4WD, sedans and EVs are moving the opposite direction.
Used sedan prices are expected to fall 1-5% through 2026, per CarEdge. Off-lease EV returns are adding supply pressure across the board. A used Camry, Accord, or Civic in 2026 is a buyer's market. A used F-150 or Silverado is not.
A truck makes sense if you actually need a truck. The data supports acting now rather than waiting for a deal that the market fundamentals aren't going to deliver.
FAQ
Will used F-150 prices drop in 2026? Per CarEdge's 2026 used vehicle forecast, trucks and SUVs are projected to finish the year 1-5% higher. Supply pressure from elevated new truck prices and below-average lease return volumes means the used F-150 market isn't getting the same pricing relief as sedans or EVs this year. Waiting is unlikely to improve your position.
What's the best model year F-150 to buy used right now? The 2022 F-150 has the highest inventory depth on CarScout at 5,754 listings as of April 12, 2026, with a median mileage of 53,031 miles. The 2020 has the tightest supply of recent model years, limiting negotiating room. If budget is the primary constraint, 2019 models at a median 91,836 miles offer deeper discounts on price per year of remaining life.
Are used trucks affected by the 2026 import tariffs? Used trucks don't absorb tariff costs directly. The impact is indirect: 25% tariffs on vehicle imports raised new truck prices by $1,600 to $2,000 for US-assembled models like the F-150 and Silverado, per CBT News. That higher new price floor pushes more buyers into the used market, which keeps used truck prices elevated even as other segments soften.
If you're watching a specific F-150 or Silverado listing, CarScout tracks days-on-market in real time. Listings that have been sitting 30 or more days tend to carry more negotiating room than freshly listed trucks. Set a scout at usecarscout.com and get an alert when a specific truck crosses that threshold.